Trump’s Legal Woes: How Will it Affect the Primaries?

By Arwen O’Brien, Editor in Chief

In an unprecedented turn of events, Donald Trump, the former president and current presidential candidate, finds himself in uncharted waters, becoming the first U.S. president to be indicted while simultaneously dealing with multiple other major legal cases and federal felony counts. As his name remains a constant fixture in news headlines, there is speculation on how these legal challenges will shape the course of the upcoming primary and election season.

On March 30, 2023, Trump found himself facing the first indictment in a New York State case related to the alleged falsification of business records tied to a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels (Freifeld et al. 2023). The payment was overseen by Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, in 2016 to maintain silence about a decade-old alleged sexual encounter between Daniels and Trump. Although Trump had denied the relationship and pleaded not guilty to falsifying the business records, he has openly acknowledged the payment itself, which, while an unsavory look for a head of state, does not directly violate any U.S. laws. However, prosecutors argue that it does breach campaign financing regulations. The trial date has been set for March 2024. 

Separately, a federal jury has found Trump liable for allegations of sexually abusing esteemed writer E. Jean Carroll back in the mid-1990s and subsequently lying about the incident in 2022 (Reuters 2023). Delivering a momentous verdict in May, the jury ordered Trump to pay $5 million in damages. The legal battle is not over, as Trump is planning an appeal. Trump has also been involved in other potentially more damaging cases from a political point of view. 

On June 13, 2023, Trump stood before the federal court in Miami and pleaded not guilty, this time facing charges related to the “illegal retention of classified documents” (Protess et al. 2023). Boxes of national security documents were discovered in the former president’s Florida residence, potentially implicating him in a violation of the Presidential Records Act of 1978. A trial for this case has been set for May 2024.

In addition, Trump is also facing a Georgia state indictment into whether election results were tampered with in the 2020 presidential election. On January 2, 2021, Trump placed a phone call to Georgia’s  Republican secretary of state Brad Raffensperger during which Trump urged him to “find” enough votes to overturn the election outcome in his favor (Reuters 2023). This investigation has raised concerns about the potential violations of no less than three Georgia criminal laws, specifically encompassing “conspiracy to commit election fraud, criminal solicitation to commit election fraud, and intentional interference with performance of election duties” (Reuters 2023). Federal prosecutors are also looking into his role to overturn the election and his role in the January 6 riot, which has led to charges including conspiracy to defraud the United States and inciting an insurrection. 

In the face of all these legal woes, Trump remains undeterred, pushing forward with his 2024 campaign for the White House. Ultimately there is nothing stopping him from doing so, as the U.S. Constitution notably sets forth just three prerequisites for the presidency in Article II Section I Clause 5. One must be a natural-born citizen, of 35 years of age or older, and have resided in the U.S. for 14 years. Consequently, despite any potential legal entanglements–even if he were to end up behind bars–Trump encounters no constitutional impediment to his potential candidacy for the presidency once again. 

In fact, Trump appears unconcerned about the potential negative impact on his presidential bid. When questioned about the possibility of withdrawing from the race ahead of the Conservative Political Action Conference in March, Trump confidently dismissed such notions, stating, “I wouldn’t even think about leaving… probably it will enhance my numbers” (Romero 2023). So the question remains – will these legal woes actually boost Trump’s support in the upcoming election? A big factor that contributed to Trump’s win in 2016 was the relentless media coverage he received. Embracing the belief that “all press is good press,” Trump adroitly controlled the media spotlight throughout the entire presidential campaign, amassing a substantial base of supporters. Now, in 2023, history seems to be repeating itself as Trump once again retakes the media spotlight in overshadowing his main primary opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and making headlines about himself–even if unintentionally. This effective reclamation of the media spotlight has thrust Trump back into the public consciousness, rekindling the fervor of his supporters and potentially attracting new ones.

A theory has emerged on how the storm of legal battles may help Trump gain traction – the witch hunt narrative. This argument suggests that Trump has become a target of unfair scrutiny, with some, including Trump himself, asserting that the cases against him have been purposefully drawn up and investigated in order to stain his image. According to Republican congressman Dan Newhouse, the current legal challenges Trump is facing would have likely destroyed the reputation of any other presidential contender in past decades. However, Newhouse contends that the situation is different for Trump, particularly among Republican supporters (Colvin and Peoples 2023). He attributes Trump’s relatively unscathed image within his party to the fact that his supporters have anticipated these legal issues, as Trump himself had repeatedly suggested the possibility of facing indictments. Consequently, many Republican voters perceive the charges against him as mere political maneuvers rather than genuine legal concerns (Colvin and Peoples 2023). By effectively setting expectations for potential charges well in advance, Trump appears to have controlled the narrative to his advantage among his supporters. Since Trump emerged as the front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination in April, the percentage of Republicans with a favorable view of him has experienced an 8% decline, polls show, but 60% of Republicans still hold a favorable view (Colvin and Sanders 2023). With the upcoming primaries looming, DeSantis may be facing an uphill battle against Trump. Recent polling data from Monmouth University, conducted between July 12 and 19, 2023, reveals that Trump is still backed by 55% of potential GOP voters, while DeSantis trails behind at 35%. 

The real long-term significance may lay in the sway of the narrative over a different segment of the electorate – the moderates and independents. For Trump, winning over these crucial voters is paramount to securing a path to the White House. Some may see him as unjustly mistreated while others may feel appalled by his conduct and apparent disregard for established presidential and democratic norms, choosing to instead vote for his opponents. According to a survey conducted from March 20th to March 23rd, 2023 by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll, 41% of respondents view the investigations as a “witch hunt,” while 56% believe they are fair. Within the Republican Party, a staggering 80% of members stand firmly behind the notion that the investigations are nothing more than a “witch hunt.” But, the poll highlights that only 23% of Americans as a whole share the belief that Trump did nothing wrong, suggesting a more nuanced perspective on his actions during his tenure as president. 

The survey results underscore the enduring polarization that has characterized American politics in recent years. The “witch hunt” narrative, embraced by a substantial portion of Republicans, amplifies the idea that the investigations targeting Trump are politically motivated and lack legitimacy. However, the recent decline in Trump’s favorability suggests that not all Republicans are maintaining support amid the ongoing legal battles. Meanwhile, a majority of the population maintains that the investigations are warranted and must be conducted impartially to uphold the principles of justice and accountability. Ultimately, this could play on people’s minds when the country votes on November 5, 2024. 

References

Colvin, Jill. Peoples, Steve. 2023. “Will Trump’s legal issues hurt his standing with Republican voters?” PBS, June 9. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/will-trumps-legal-issues-hurt-his-standing-with-republican-voters.

Colvin, Jill. Sanders, Linley. 2023. “GOP support for Trump dips slightly after classified documents indictment, AP-NORC poll says.” PBS, June 29. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/gop-support-for-trump-dips-slightly-after-classified-documents-indictment-ap-norc-poll-says.

Freifeld, Karen. Cohen, Luc. Clifford, Tyler. 2023. “Trump criminally charged in New York, a first for a US ex-president.” Reuters, March 30. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/urgent-trump-hit-with-criminal-charges-new-york-first-us-ex-president-new-york-2023-03-30/.

Monmouth University. 2023. “Trump maintains strong GOP primary advantage despite indictments.” Monmouth University, July 25. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_072523/.

NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist National Poll. 2023. “Majority of Americans Think Trump Investigations are Fair…Three in Four Say Trump Did Something Wrong.” Marist Poll, March 27. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/donald-trump-investigations/.

Protess, Ben. Feuer, Alan. Hakim, Danny. 2023. “Donald Trump Faces Several Investigations. Here’s Where They Stand.” The New York Times, July 27. https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html.

Reuters. 2023. “Donald Trump legal issues: What charges, lawsuits and investigations does he face?” Reuters, June 27. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/legal-troubles-former-us-president-donald-trump-2023-06-27/.

Romero, Laura. 2023. “Trump could still be elected president despite 2nd indictment, experts say.” ABC News, June 8. https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-elected-president-indicted-convicted-experts/story?id=97688250.