Our Decision: New Yorkers could decide house control 

By James Kang, New York Politics

The last congressional election in New York in 2022 may have helped the Republican Party maintain its slight majority in the House, as they successfully flipped four districts. Two years later, the 2024 congressional elections are being held alongside the 2024 United States presidential election, and the outcome of New York’s congressional races will determine if there will be a power shift in Congress in 2025. 

Contested Seats in the House

Of the 26 districts in New York, seven appear to be heavily contested for the 2024 elections. One of these districts is the 1st Congressional District, a district known for voting Republican. As of October 1, the polls claim that the Republican candidate, Nick LaLota, has a ten percentage net advantage over the Democratic candidate, John Avlon (FiveThirtyEight 2024). Regardless, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee established a strong belief that Avlon has a chance of winning the congressional race as they added him to the list of candidates part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC 2024) “Red to Blue” program. The “Red to Blue” program is a “highly competitive and tested program at the DCCC that equips top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue to run strong campaigns. Come November, these candidates and others will take on Republicans across the country—and fight to help us win back our majority.” (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee 2024).

Another contested seat in the House is the 3rd Congressional District, with polls stating that this district could be likely Democratic (FiveThirtyEight 2024; New York Times 2024). The candidates are incumbent Tom Suozzi and Republican Michael LiPetri Jr. Although a Democratic victory is likely, the polls have been close for the first few months of 2024. The deciding factor of this election appears to be the candidates’ positions on housing, as noted in their televised debate (Ballotpedia 2024).

Another contested seat in the House is the 4th Congressional District, with the polls stating that this district could be a dead-heat toss-up (City and State New York 2024; New York Times 2024). The candidates are Anthony D’Esposito for the Republican Party and Laura Gillen for the Democratic Party. While incumbent D’Esposito helped Republicans flip this seat in 2022, he is now vulnerable because he allegedly put his fiancee’s daughter and a woman he was having an affair with on his payroll (New York Times 2024). There are more active registered Democratic voters in this district than Republicans, but more importantly, this will be the second time that these two candidates face off against each other. The 4th Congressional district experienced minimal changes in regard to the redistricting process, and in 2022, D’Esposito won the district by a slight margin of 4 points (Ballotpedia 2024; FiveThirtyEight 2024). Overall, polls claim that this congressional district can be flipped back to the Democratic side, but the race is still a toss-up (FiveThirtyEight 2024; New York Times 2024).

Another contested seat in the House is the 17th Congressional District, with the polls stating that this district is another toss-up (New York Times 2024). The candidates are Mike Lawler of the Republican Party and Mondaire Jones of the Democratic Party. In terms of voter registration, there are more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters. This will be the first time these two candidates face off against each other, but Jones has had experience before, being previously elected as the representative for the 17th Congressional District in 2020. Similar to aforementioned candidates, Jones is also part of the “Red to Blue” program, as the Democratic party believes that he is a strong candidate that can help “lower costs for everyday people, defend democracy, improve public safety, and stop Republicans from banning abortion.” (DCCC 2024). The outcome of the election is still relatively unknown. Jones has experienced attacks from New York media that he lied about his reason for leaving the district, in addition to his loss in the Working Families Party primary to Anthony Frascone. Lawler has tried to strengthen his campaign by vocalizing his support for Israel to appeal to the large Jewish population in the district (City and State New York 2024). So while polls perceive a seat-flip for the Democrats, this race is far from over (FiveThirtyEight 2024; New York Times 2024).

In the 18th Congressional District, incumbent Pat Ryan faces Republican Alison Esposito. The polls have suggested that the election is close, as Ryan and Esposito were even on August 1-3. As the months went on, Ryan gained a slight advantage of four percentage points.. The most significant factor of this election appears to be the candidates’ positions on abortion rights. Ryan’s campaign has criticized the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and promotes abortion rights, while Esposito’s campaign claimed that the Supreme Court was right to return the issue back to the states (City and State New York 2024).

Furthermore, another heavily contested election is taking place in the 19th Congressional District, which includes Binghamton. Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley are fighting for the seat in a rematch (Ballotpedia 2024). Josh Riley has the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee with their “Red to Blue” program, as well as having more registered, Democratic registered voters in his district.. This will be a tight race, as Molinaro had only won the 2022 election by approximately 4500 votes (City and State New York 2024). 

Last but not least, the contested race of the 22nd Congressional District. According to the polls, Democrat John Mannion currently holds a slight advantage over his opponent, incumbent Brandon Williams. Also supported by the “Red to Blue” program, Mannion may flip the congressional seat. Historically, the 22nd Congressional District has tended to flip between Democrat and Republican representation, as Williams managed to win the 2022 election by just 1 percentage point (City and State New York 2024). 

To conclude, the Democratic Party’s electoral strategy is to direct and establish a coordinated effort. According to New York Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, one of the reasons why the Democratic Party lost to the Republicans in 2022 was because “There were no big rallies. There was no organized canvassing, there was no coordination at all amongst local candidates and House candidates,” Gillibrand said to NPR News. As a result, the Democrats are using the “Red to Blue” program to unify their efforts, and link state and local party operations. On the other hand, New York Republicans are striving to maintain their congressional seats by utilizing similar strategies from 2022. Similar to their “formula in 2022, [which] was a barrage of ads and attacks on Democrats on crime, immigration, and border security,” Republicans’ 2024 electoral strategy is to re-highlight these issues to the Republican voters (NPR 2024).

2022 New York Congressional Race

When examining the relationship between a hypothetical power shift in Congress in 2025 and the outcome of congressional races in New York, it is important to examine the 2022 New York Congressional races. These races can provide valuable insight into the key factors that contributed to the current balance of power in Congress and what can influence future elections. 

New York is traditionally perceived as a “blue” state, indicating Democratic Party dominance (270towin 2024). This was especially the case for its congressional delegation, as the Democratic Party has held a significant majority in the House. When the 2020 House elections were held on November 3, 2020, the Democratic Party maintained 19 of their 21 held congressional districts, with two being flipped to the Republican Party (Politico 2021).

However, it was announced on April 2, 2021, that New York was one of seven states that lost seats in the House of Representatives. Since US state population totals determine how many seats each state receives in the House of Representatives, New York lost one congressional seat; only 89 residents short (AP News 2021).

New York also had another change implemented in 2014: a constitutional amendment known as Proposition 1. This piece of legislation preaches a fair and transparent redistribution process of the state legislative and congressional districts. This would be achieved by ending prison gerrymandering and eliminating party legislative control over voting procedures and map approval mechanisms. Briefly, prison gerrymandering is “the practice of counting individuals where they are incarcerated, rather than where they call home – [which] actively works against the notion of equal representation that is foundational to our democracy” (Democracy Docket 2021). Through the amendment, “New Yorkers voted to establish an advisory commission for redistricting, composed of ten members. Each of the majority and minority leaders in the New York legislature appoints two commissioners, and those eight commissioners, in turn, choose the remaining two members, who cannot be registered members of either of the state’s two largest political parties (i.e., must be members of third parties or independents)” (Brennan Center for Justice 2020).

Having this in mind, the New York Independent Redistricting Commission submitted its initial redistricting proposals to the public on September 15, 2021. After two sets of maps were passed on February 2, 2022, New York Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul signed the new congressional and state legislative map proposals into law the next day. Democrats in New York submitted these maps in hopes of maintaining their power while decreasing Republican power in the state (Princeton 2023). On the contrary, after back-and-forth reviews by different levels of New York state courts, the maps were rejected because they were perceived to be gerrymandered. Eventually, New York Judge Patrick McAllister approved a new congressional map published by a special master under the New York Court of Appeals. Through this newly approved congressional map, voting power was shifted in the state, but political scientists perceived that Democrats would keep their political advantage regardless (New York State Independent Redistricting Commission 2021; Ballotpedia 2024).

Democrats eventually learned that this wasn’t the case. After the House elections were held on November 8, 2022, the Democratic Party has only won 15 of New York’s House seats. In other words, having won 11 of New York’s 26 districts, the Republican Party was successful in flipping 4 of the districts. Not only was this a shock to the Democratic Party, but political scientists began considering if New York was slowly transitioning into a “purple” state. 

So what exactly happened? One of the arguments political scientists propose is that New York’s loss of a congressional seat and the new redistribution of the congressional districts was to blame. On the other hand, others argue that seats were flipped from Democrat to Republican because of issues with turning out their core supporters. The numbers show that fewer New Yorkers cast ballots in the 2022 elections compared to previous years, with the steepest declines occurring in the New York City boroughs. To put it in perspective, since the 2020 election is when the presidential election occurs, it is better to examine the 2018 midterm election, being in the same category as the 2022 election. After all, voter turnout typically decreases during midterm election years compared to presidential election years (New York City Campaign Finance Board 2019).

In 2018, voter turnout was significantly higher than it was in previous midterms, at a rate of 39% in New York City, including over 250,000 new voter registrations. However, in 2022, voter turnout in New York City decreased to 38.3%, with only approximately 154,000 voters to be newly registered. Therefore, the drop in voter turnout was approximately 500,000 votes in 2022 compared to 2018, despite the 2022 election having more than 5.7 million votes cast. Moreover, Brooklyn, being one of the most important boroughs for Democratic votes, saw 109,815 fewer votes cast than in 2018. Manhattan also witnessed a decline in voter turnout, with 114,171 fewer votes than in 2018. Staten Island, which is prominently known for its Republican status, experienced an increase in voter turnout, with approximately 1400 additional votes (Brookings 2023; New York City Campaign Finance Board 2023).

Furthermore, when examining voter turnout by age group, there are evident large distinctions for the younger and middle age groups. In 2018, there was a 39.3% turnout for the age group 18-29, while there was a 26.6% turnout in the 2022 general election. In 2018, there was a 42.6% turnout rate for the age group of 30-39, while it decreased to 32.9% in 2022. In 2018, there was a 46% turnout rate for the 40-49 age group, which decreased to 37.4% in the 2022 general election. As for the 50-59 age group, the turnout rate decreased from 51.2% to 43.8%. While older age groups also experienced turnout rate decreases, they weren’t as substantial and only decreased by a small percentage (Brookings 2023; New York City Campaign Finance Board 2019; New York City Campaign Finance Board 2023).

When analyzing the turnout rate by race, it is noticeable that Black and Latino or Hispanic Americans had lower turnout rates in 2022 compared to 2018, with the turnout rate for Black Americans experiencing a 5.7% decrease and the turnout rate for Latino or Hispanic Americans decreasing by 2.5%. As for sex, the turnout rate for females experienced a 1.9% decrease, a larger decrease than the male group with a 0.5% decrease. Thus, it is evident that certain demographics of Democrats have failed to turn out, particularly residents of New York City, causing Democrats to lose the congressional elections in 2022 (Brookings 2023; New York City Campaign Finance Board 2019; New York City Campaign Finance Board 2023).

Conclusion 

The outcome of New York’s congressional races in New York has the potential to cause a power shift in Congress in 2025. Regarding 2022, however, there is one more aspect of elections to be examined: the red wave. In 2022, polls predicted that there would be a red wave, meaning that the Republican Party would experience significant gains in the elections. The red wave was a concept not applicable to the House, as Republicans only increased from 212 seats in the House to 222, with the Democrats decreasing only from 220 to 213. The number of flipped seats in 2022 was noticeably less than in the 2018 midterm elections, where the Democratic Party won 41 more seats, with the Republican Party losing 42. 

References:

Boyce, Lily, Lazaro Gamio, Eli Murray, and Alicia Parlapiano. 2024. “Tracking the House’s Most Competitive Races.” The New York Times, October 16. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/house-election-swing-districts.html.

“DCCC Announces First Round of Candidates Named to Coveted 2024 ‘Red to Blue’ Program.” 2024. DCCC, January 29. https://dccc.org/dccc-announces-first-round-of-candidates-named-to-coveted-2024-red-to-blue-program/.

Democracy Docket. 2021. “Prison Gerrymandering, Explained.” Democracy Docket, October 4. https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/prison-gerrymandering-explained/ 

Force, Eliot. 2024. “2024 New York Congressional Races to Watch.” City & State NY, July 17. https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2024/07/2024-new-york-congressional-races-watch/397861/.

Frey, William H., Gabriel R. Sanchez Rashawn Ray, Elaine Kamarck, and Morley Winograd Michael Hais. 2023. “New Voter Turnout Data from 2022 Shows Some Surprises, Including Lower Turnout for Youth, Women, and Black Americans in Some States.” Brookings, May 18. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-voter-turnout-data-from-2022-shows-some-surprises-including-lower-turnout-for-youth-women-and-black-americans-in-some-states/. 

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“New York’s 4th Congressional District Election, 2024.” Ballotpedia. https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2024.

“New York’s 17th Congressional District Election, 2024.” Ballotpedia. https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_17th_Congressional_District_election,_2024. 

“New York’s 19th Congressional District Election, 2024 (June 25 Democratic Primary).” Ballotpedia. https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2024_(June_25_Democratic_primary). 

“New York | Gerrymandering Project.” Princeton University. https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/reforms/NY. 

“NYC Votes Releases the 2018-2019 Voter Analysis Report.” New York City Campaign Finance Board. https://nyccfb.info/media/press-releases/nyc-votes-releases-the-2018-2019-voter-analysis-report/. 

Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe. 2024. “Latest Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, October 8. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/. 

Walsh, Deirdre. 2024. “How Democrats Are Targeting Red Seats in Blue New York to Help Win Back the House.” NPR, October 3. https://www.npr.org/2024/10/03/nx-s1-5119744/democrats-flip-new-york-house-races. 

Walter, Amy. 2024. “2024 CPR House Race Ratings | Cook Political Report.” Cook Political Report, October 18. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.