A Change in Regime

By Max Drucker, Foreign Affairs

On December 8th, 2024, the Syrian Ba’athist Party and the Assad political dynasty were exhumed from the Syrian administration after a grueling decade of civil war. Since the start of the Arab Spring in 2011, the president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, waged an all-out war on the country’s political insurgents. The Arab Spring was a chain of protests across North Africa and the Middle East that demanded civic freedoms from their authoritarian governments, attempting to loosen autocratic regimes’ grip over their people. Bashar al-Assad’s response to the popular opposition was to meet it with the Syrian army, mostly made up of conscripts from the Alawite minority population of Syria. Assad maneuvered poorly through over a decade of civil war, becoming wholly reliant on foreign intervention by the likes of Russia and Iran to maintain a destitute status quo. One of the most detrimental facets of the war for Assad, which led to the abrupt government takeover by the insurgents, was the absence of Russian support, with Russia recently embroiled in the drawn-out conflict with Ukraine and no longer able to maintain the same support originally pledged. Following ten years of conflict, the deposed president narrowly escaped justice at the hands of the Syrian people and was forced to flee to Russia. The vacuum of central power, coupled with the multitude of actors engaged in the Syrian civil war, has left most puzzled as to the direction Syria will now go. The possibility for the Syrian people to embrace democracy has never been more opportune; however, the transition from autocracy to democracy is never entirely seamless.

The Civil War

Syria’s civil war saw many participants throughout its duration, all with their respective interests and affiliations. The YPG (The People’s Defense Units) is a Kurdish militant group in Northern Syria aimed at securing political freedoms, decentralization, and, possibly, national independence from Syria. These objectives stood in stark contrast to the aims of al-Nusrah, an Islamist group with strong ties to al-Qaeda, which looked to oust the Assad government in order to expand its domain (Counter Terrorism Guide 2014). It must be emphasized that while coordination was established between the anti-regime groups, there was little in common between them doctrinally. However, once the dust settled from the regime’s collapse, the need for cooperation became imperative. The leader of the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmed al-Sharaa, became the interim president of Syria. The collective was closely connected and designated as an affiliate group to al-Nusrah, posing serious concerns for those inclined to see a non-Islamist government established in Syria. Interestingly, al-Sharaa has since decided to break from his Islamist background and move toward a more “Western-oriented” ideology, such that he may legitimize his rule and attract prospective bilateral partnerships with Western states. Al-Sharaa has made promises about a transparent and inclusive government, equal rights for women, relaxed imposition of Shari’a on the state’s religious minorities, and a popular political process to determine the expected Syrian constitution (Schenker 2025). Al-Sharaa’s recent declaration of Syria’s interim government has already included Druze and Alawite Syrians in his cabinet among the Sunni majority, signaling a willingness to amend the historic Alawite-dominated administration of the Assads (Al Jazeera 2025). Although al-Sharaa is making a concerted effort to depict his attempt to democratize Syria, it is difficult for many to forget his jihadist past so suddenly. 

Growth of a Syrian Democracy

Democracy in the Middle East is sparse, only truly prevalent in Israel in modern history. Following the global process of decolonization, most Middle Eastern states aligned themselves with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, catalyzing a process that would enable authoritarian rule through a client-based relationship. Western intervention in the region prompted a tangible reactionary fervor among the masses, be it support of Israel or dictatorial Western-backed monarchies. Institutions commonly associated with democracy (i.e., state assemblies, parliaments, popular voting, elections, etc.) have been fictitiously appropriated by Middle Eastern autocratic regimes, serving to falsely legitimize autocratic rule. The region’s history exemplifies the observed lack of democracy in the Middle East in the current moment—a point which may prove difficult for Syria in attempts to drastically change its system of government. 

One of the greater challenges for Syria on its path to democracy is its neighbor, Israel. Israeli involvement throughout the Syrian civil war stood to further destabilize Bashar al-Assad’s rule, the nation acting as one of the many external belligerents of the civil war. Israel’s most pivotal move was the annihilation of Hezbollah, an Iran-backed proxy group based out of Lebanon that continually propped up the Assad regime. Following the destruction of Hezbollah and the sudden dwindling of Russian aid, the Assad regime crumbled beneath the pressure of the insurgents. Following the regime’s downfall, Israel invaded Syria through the occupied Golan Heights toward Damascus, the Syrian capital, in hopes of expanding the demilitarized zone between the two states. Israel then began to shell Damascus and the Syrian countryside, much to the detriment of the interim Syrian government. Historically, Israel has had an incredibly strained relationship with Syria, as Syria has never formally recognized the former diplomatically. Currently, the Israeli government has admonished the interim Syrian government by concluding it is no more than a “terror group” from Idlib that took Damascus by force (Al Jazeera 2025). The Syrian government, headed by al-Sharaa and the UN, has petitioned against the Israeli bombings, with little action taken (Christou 2025). Israel, which could represent a strategic partnership for a democratic transition in Syria, has instead decided to erode ties with the new government. Netanyahu’s wartime government has been called into question by many due to its undemocratic actions, such as prospectively overhauling the Israeli judicial system, which has seen many Israelis protesting domestically against his rule and calling for new elections (Lonsdorf 2025). As Israel has long stood as a bastion of democracy in a sea of authoritarianism, it was thought that the country might have voluntarily assisted a transitional government for Syria instead of assuming a territorially ambitious attitude. 

Syria’s path toward democracy is troubled, and it will be a difficult transition for a state that has never experienced true democracy to suddenly adopt democratic characteristics. The democratization of Syria will not be a simple or quick task and will certainly require foreign assistance, both monetarily and administratively. Recovering from a conflict that depleted a nation and people as much as the Syrian civil war did makes the challenge of democratization even more difficult. One can hope that al-Sharaa can maintain his secular aspirations, which may allow the country to secure funds for reconstruction from the World Bank organization. The interim government will need to overcome both domestic and international challenges so that it may build a better future for the Syrian people: one where they may decide their future. 

References 

Al Jazeera. March 30, 2025. “Syrian president Al-Sharaa unveils transitional government” Al Jazeera Syria’s War

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/30/syrian-president-unveils-transitional-government

Al Jazeera. April 8, 2025. “Why is Israel attacking Syria?” Al Jazeera Israel-Palestine Conflict

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/30/syrian-president-unveils-transitional-government

Christou, William. February 25, 2025. “Israel strikes targets in Southern Syria after demanding demilitarisation” The Guardian 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/30/syrian-president-unveils-transitional-government

Counter Terrorism Guide. April 14th, 2014. “Al-Nusrah Front” National Counter-Terrorism Center. https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/al_nusrah_front.html#:~:text=The%20group%20is%20committed%20not,ida%20in%20Iraq%20or%20Pakistan.&text=The%20Islamic%20State%20of%20Iraq,role%20in%20founding%20the%20group. 

Lonsdorf, Kat. March 25, 2025. “Why Israel’s having some of its biggest protests since the war in Gaza began” NPR

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/25/nx-s1-5339490/israel-protests-netanyahu-hostages-gaza-war

Schenker, David. March 11, 2025. “Enough with the Hand-Wringing: Al-Sharaa is Better than Assad” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/enough-hand-wringing-al-sharaa-better-assad