“Oh Snap” Elections: A Guide to Canada’s Electoral Procedure and Party System

By Kieran Grundfast, Elections

Canadians, originally not due for new elections until October 20 of this year, will go to the polls on April 28, 2025, in a snap election called for by new Canadian Prime Minister (PM) and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney. Carney will face Conservative Party leader and member of parliament (MP) Pierre Poilievre, who, until recently, had successfully campaigned against the incumbent Liberal government to achieve a significant lead in the polls. The dynamics of this election—seeming initially to be fought on the basis of political issues such as immigration, housing supply and affordability, carbon taxes, and the premiership of former PM Justin Trudeau—have been turned on their head by the resignation of Trudeau, along with new diplomatic and economic disputes with the United States under the second administration of President Donald Trump. The change is seen most clearly in the recovery of the Liberal Party in election polling, which previously trailed significantly behind the Conservative Party. Several smaller parties are also competing in the upcoming elections. To better understand the elections, we must first understand the basics of  Canada’s political and electoral system, the parties involved, and how they are responding to newly salient issues in Canadian international relations in the context of the snap elections.

The road to the elections begins with the resignation of former PM Justin Trudeau, who retained office from 2015 to 2025. Trudeau was a relatively popular PM, leading the Liberal Party to victory in the 2015, 2019, and 2021 elections until 2022. Trudeau and the Liberals became increasingly unpopular due to persistent economic issues stemming from COVID-19, voter dissatisfaction with his government’s immigration policy (which was regarded as too lax), internal scandals within his party and cabinet, and a carbon tax passed into law by his administration (Gillies 2024). Trudeau’s resignation as PM was preceded by the Conservative Party opening up a significant lead in pre-election polling, the loss of parliamentary seats that had long been considered safe Liberal constituencies in by-elections, and his own dismal approval ratings (Yousif and Murphy 2025). These developments led an increasing number of his Liberal MPs to call for his resignation as party leader and PM. Trudeau successfully resisted this effort until late last year when his Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned, disagreeing with Trudeau’s approach to fiscal policy in the runup to the regularly scheduled fall elections and his initial approach to potential trade disputes with the new Trump administration. Freeland’s resignation was followed by the resignation of two more members of the former PM’s cabinet. Facing overwhelming internal pressure from the Liberals and intensely disliked by most Canadian voters, Trudeau resigned as PM and Liberal Party leader on January 3. He ceased being PM on March 14, 2025, when newly elected Liberal Party leader Mark Carney was sworn in as PM (Ljunggren and Smith 2025).

Now, there are two major contenders for PM in the upcoming election: Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. Carney, an economist and former UN envoy, has previously served as Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England–the Canadian and British equivalents of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Stevis-Gridneff and Isai 2025). He also previously worked as an informal economic advisor to Justin Trudeau during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and was made responsible for developing the Liberal Party’s economic growth platform in late 2024 (ibid.). On January 16, 2025, Carney announced his candidacy for the 2025 Liberal Party leadership election (which is somewhat analogous to party primaries in the U.S.) (Yousif 2025). Voting occurred from February 26 to March 9. Carney was elected party leader on the first ballot with about 86% of the vote, beating out his closest rival for the position, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland (Woods 2025). Carney is the first PM in Canadian history not to have held prior elected office and currently does not hold a seat in the Canadian House of Commons; however, he plans to contest one in the upcoming election (Tunney 2025). Pierre Poilievre is the current leader of the Conservative Party and an MP, making him the leader of the Official Opposition in Parliament. Poilievre has been an MP since 2004, serving in the cabinet of the last Conservative Canadian PM, Stephen Harper, as Minister of Democratic Reform and Employment and Social Development (Stevis-Gridneff and Isai 2025). Poilievre ran in the 2022 Conservative Party leadership election and won on the first ballot with about 70% of the vote (Tasker 2022). His leadership has seen the Conservatives win several by-elections (analogous to special elections in the U.S.) and, beginning in 2023 until recently, a double-digit percentage surge in support in opinion polls and surveys (CBC 2025).

Like the U.S., Canada has a single-member district plurality vote electoral system, also known as a first-past-the-post system (BBC 2025). Voters choose between candidates nominated to contest individual electoral districts, known as ridings, and the candidate that receives the most votes in a riding is elected to represent that riding as its MP (ibid.). Unlike the U.S., though, the candidate selection process for electoral districts in Canada is more centralized: nomination contests in ridings are limited to party members only, unlike some primary voting systems in some U.S. states, where anyone can vote in a primary (Brosseau 2022; Valihno 2025). Additionally, the party leadership in Canada has a far greater ability to vet and, at times, appoint candidates to contest ridings, bypassing local nomination contests in some instances. Candidates running under a party must also ultimately be approved by the leader of that party (ibid.). There are currently 343 seats in Canada’s House of Commons (BBC 2025). The party that receives the most seats in an election forms the government, with the party’s leader becoming Prime Minister (ibid.). The largest party in Parliament that is not a part of the government becomes the Official Opposition, with more public financing and parliamentary privileges than other opposition parties (ibid.). Given Canada’s multiparty system, the governing party rarely receives an absolute majority of votes cast and, at times, not even a majority of seats in Parliament. For example, in 2021, the Liberals lost the popular vote, receiving 32.62% of voter support compared to the Conservatives’ 33.74%. Though not a majority, they won the most seats of any party, winning in 160 ridings. They would go on to form a single-party minority government with external legislative support from a minor social-democratic party called the New Democratic Party (NDP). This organization of Canada’s legislature is somewhat analogous to that found in the U.S., where the majority party’s leader in the House of Representatives and Senate are usually selected as the Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader, respectively. However, unlike the U.S., the PM serves simultaneously as the executive and a member of the legislature.

   Due to the current two-party system in the U.S., there are never situations in which no party holds a majority in either chamber of the legislature, unlike Canada’s House of Commons. Additionally, while Canada has a bicameral parliament, with the Senate serving as the upper chamber, all of its members are appointed, not elected, and the House of Commons is the dominant chamber in which the majority of bills originate and the majority of governance occurs (BBC 2025; Foot 2006). Finally, unlike the U.S., the incumbent government can be subject to a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons. If such a vote passes, the PM must either resign and let a new government form or dissolve Parliament and hold new elections (Basc and Gagnon 2017). 

Four main parties will contest the upcoming elections: the Liberals, the Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois (BQ), and the New Democratic Party (NDP). As stated, the Liberal Party has been in power since the 2015 election and is generally a center-left party. They won 160 seats in the 2021 election. The Conservatives are the largest opposition party in the House of Commons, winning 119 seats in 2021. They are a center-right party that, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, has taken on a more populist character. The Bloc Québécois is the third-largest party in Parliament, winning 32 seats in the last election. Active only in the province of Quebec, the BQ is a regionalist party focused on French Canadians’ cultural and regional autonomy, with a generally center-left orientation on other issues. Finally, the NDP is the fourth-largest party in Parliament, winning 25 seats in 2021. They are a center-left to left-wing party based around social democracy, with some party factions advocating for democratic socialism. 

  On March 23, new PM Mark Carney called for snap elections on April 28 (Ljunggren and Smith 2025). This announcement is inseparable from the new economic and diplomatic conflicts with the U.S. under the second Trump administration: these include the newly placed, but still delayed, tariffs on Canadian imports—specifically, sectoral tariffs on industries critical to the Canadian economy, such as automotive and steel manufacturing—and continuing promises of eventual U.S. annexation (ibid.; Murphy 2025). Carney stated in his announcement that he needed a strong mandate to address these new disputes, declaring that President Donald Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.”. By calling for early elections, the PM  seeks to capitalize on the recovery of the Liberal Party in the polls, beginning in January as a result of Trump’s rise to office and the resignation of  Trudeau. For example, on January 20, 2025, the Conservative Party’s polling average in the CBC News poll tracker was about 45% to the Liberals’ 22%. Almost two months later, on March 19, their respective polling averages were virtually tied at about 37% each (CBC 2025).

   The electoral prospects of BQ and the NDP have also changed dramatically, with both plummeting in the polls as their voters rally behind the Liberals in the face of volatile relations with Canada’s neighbor (CBC 2025). For the Liberal Party, disputes with the Trump administration have triggered a rally-around-the-flag effect. Before, voters were more eager for a change in government; now, they want stable and firm leadership. And while all parties and candidates have taken a tough line on the Trump administration’s actions, the Liberals have gained the most from the uncertainty as the incumbent party.

As relations with the U.S. become the dominant issue in the elections, other matters whose salience was dragging down support for the Liberals have become less important, with PM Carney seeking to eliminate weak points altogether; for example, one of his first acts as PM was to eliminate the highly unpopular carbon tax passed under Trudeau, which had featured heavily in Conservative campaigning up to that point (Major 2025). While concerns over other issues, such as immigration, cost of living, and housing, haven’t gone away entirely in the campaign, they are increasingly tied to the overriding issue of diplomatic relations that could be catastrophic for Canada’s economy.  Carney has also leveraged voters’ concerns with the Trump administration to paint Poilievre as “Trump-light”, referring to his aggressive campaigning style and the populist character of his campaign; conversely, Poilievre has argued that Carney is no different from former PM Trudeau, painting him as someone who is out of touch with average Canadians, and set on pursuing the same policies that made Trudeau unpopular (ibid.). 

New disputes and volatility in U.S.-Canada relations have wholly upended the trends and dynamics in Canadian electoral politics, leading to early elections and an unexpected reprieve for the Liberals. Under PM Trudeau, they were over 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives in public polling, but they now hold a modest five-point lead in the CBC polling average as of April 19. Issues that previously boosted the Conservatives’ electoral prospects, such as Trudeau’s premiership, carbon taxes, the cost-of-living crisis, housing affordability, and immigration, have either been eliminated as a result of Carney’s leadership and resulting policy changes or subsumed into the now-dominant issue of Canada’s response to the new Trump administration’s policies. The upcoming elections will thus be a tight race, with the Liberals benefiting thanks to collapsing support for BQ and the NDP as those voters flock to the Liberal Party. Given the uncertain state of bilateral relations with the U.S., the potential for further rapid shifts in Canadian politics before April 28 cannot be discounted. The government that will eventually form will primarily be judged on its response and effectiveness in addressing conflicts with the Trump administration. Its support will, therefore, hinge on balancing the potential for compromises and agreements with the U.S. and the wants of Canadian voters, who desire a firm response.

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